How to Win the Game of Trust

Evidence suggests trust forms a barrier to churn

A competitor just introduced a new product that delivers significantly higher performance. Do you worry your customers will jump ship? If they trust you, there’s little to fear. A new study using collaborative games demonstrates people value trust far more than performance when choosing partners.  

New research

Scientists at the University of Maryland recently conducted an experiment to see how feelings of trust guide decisions.¹  Test subjects first played an investment game in which they could keep or invest $10 with three other players. Participants learned by playing the game that one (benevolent) always returned slightly more than the player invested, another (greedy) never returned any investment, and a third (exploitative) returned slightly more than invested in first two rounds and then returned nothing. 

Then researchers asked participants to play a second game, a team version of Battleship. Subjects would choose one of the three partners from the previous game to play with them. Scientists told participants that during the game, all players would select their targets at the same time, shots would be revealed simultaneously and shot sources kept hidden, so no player knew who shot at which target or which board. At the end of the game, winners would split a $50 prize. Subjects saw a chart indicating that some partners were significantly more skilled than others. Faced with the challenge of maximizing their winnings, players had to choose either a better player or one they trusted. 

The scientists discovered that people were nearly eight times more likely to choose a poorly performing but trustworthy partner than an untrustworthy but highly capable one. It was as if skill didn’t matter at all; people’s subjective evaluation of trustworthiness far outweighed their objective evaluation of skill. The “halo effect,” in which one’s initial impressions of another’s character significantly influences later assessments of that person,²  was clearly in evidence.

The game of business

This experiment suggests trust may inhibit customer churn in the event a competitor introduces a game-changing product. People are increasingly skeptical of marketing claims,³  so given a choice of maintaining a trusting relationship or believing a sales pitch and taking a chance on an unknown supplier, customers are far more likely to stay than switch. There are limits, of course. According to prospect theory, customers seriously consider alternatives when promised benefits exceed 2:1,⁴  and high churn may indicate things are worse than they appear. But high levels of trust can buy companies precious time to catch up. When companies enjoy a base of trusting customers, simply sharing product roadmaps and allaying concerns about timelines may be all that’s needed to keep them from switching.

Conversely, the experiment shows just how detrimental betrayal can be. When companies use deceptive marketing practices, treat customers unfairly, or fail to keep promises, customers learn the company can’t be trusted and look elsewhere. This conclusion supports other research that suggests trust moderates customer loyalty. 

Winning trust

People don’t immediately trust each other—they learn to trust over a series of experiences. It’s a process, and like all other processes, relationships can be continuously improved. Therefore companies can design and implement processes that increase customer attachment and lead to higher levels of trust. 

Customer journey mapping is a handy tool for improving processes. First, managers determine the sequence of events that makes up the customer experience, from becoming aware of the company’s offering to purchasing, implementing, using, and eventually renewing or canceling the subscription. Managers then critique each touch point along the journey, looking to remedy frustrating or inefficient steps. When managers include mindful customer experience techniques in the mapping process, they uncover hidden opportunities to strengthen customer bonds along the way. They learn that managing five critical moments in the customer experience makes all the difference. As a result, companies systematically increase trust and customer loyalty. 

Intense competition and fleeting technology advantages characterize the subscription economy, so executive should expect times when their offerings lag competitors.  If companies make it difficult for rivals to dislodge their customers during these times, the countermeasures protect the company’s sustainability over the long run. Strengthening customer relationships then becomes a high stakes game, one companies don’t want to lose. Taking a systematic approach to building trust can separate the winners from the losers. 

Sources:

1. Buntain, C. and Golbeck, J. (2014). Trust transfer between contexts.
2. Thorndike, E.L.: A constant error in psychological ratings. Journal of Applied Psychology 4, 25–29 (1920).
3. Friestad, M. and Wright, P. (1994). The persuasion knowledge model: how people cope with persuasion attempts. Journal of Consumer Research, vol. 21, No. 1, June 1994.
4. Tversky A., and Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory—cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk Uncertainty, 5, 297-323

The Seven Systems of CSM Excellence

Universal practices instill high performance

What makes some companies like Intel, Southwest, and Ritz-Carlton perennial performers? Is their secret charismatic leaders? Good timing? Grand vision? No. High performance isn’t about what organizations do, but how they do it. Customer Success teams can apply the same disciplines used by top-performing companies to dramatically increase results.

Jim Collins, author of Built to Last and Good to Great, says “dynasty” companies (those generating financial returns of at least 10x for 15 years or more) behave very differently than the rest. Unlike typical organizations, top performers are fanatically disciplined, empirically creative, and productively paranoid.¹ Laser-focused and utterly relentless, they eliminate distractions and drive continuous improvement everywhere. Rather than follow industry experts or imitate others, top companies engineer their own breakthroughs using empirical evidence, observation and experimentation. And they remain hyper-vigilant, watching competitors intently and adjusting their strategies to thrive in a constantly shifting landscape.

High performing organizations like the ones Jim Collins describes depend on a set of interconnected, self-reinforcing management systems to instill their unique behaviors. Their management disciplines become embedded in the organization’s “operating system,” creating a culture of excellence in individual work areas and throughout the enterprise.  The management systems they use are universally applicable, so Customer Success leaders can use them to realize similar benefits:

Sensory System

What it does: Methodically collects and interprets customer, market, competitive, regulatory, workforce, and technology trends to continually uncover new opportunities and threats.

Leading practices: Use quantitative and qualitative analysis extensively for market and product definition and performance monitoring. Implement internal and third-party “listening posts” in multiple channels. Increase relevance and salience by interpreting findings according to market segment. Systematically analyze, review and prioritize feedback for company business reviews, product roadmaps, and process improvements. Reduce “blind spots” by periodically challenging underlying assumptions and measurement techniques.

Application in Customer Success: Collect product usage, customer satisfaction, trouble ticket, and contact frequency statistics to generate health scores for specific customers and market segments. Utilize direct customer comments in CRM records and formal customer reviews for product and process deficiencies. Share discoveries via periodic, formal feedback sessions with development, sales, marketing, accounting, and operations leaders.

Planning and Review System

What it does: Inputs information, prioritizes actions, defines objectives, goals, strategies, tactics, and owners, and aligns financial and personnel resources to promote successful execution. Evaluates progress formally and periodically, holding people accountable, adjusting plans, and promoting learning.

Leading practices: Develop strategic (multi-year) plans that articulate long-term vision, objectives and goals, customer and market dynamics, competition, product and service roadmaps, value propositions, value delivery systems, staff development, risks, and financial pro-formas. Link strategic with annual plans and implement through product development and process improvement plans. Coordinate planning and review activities via calendars, and use scenario analysis to detect and quickly respond to environmental “triggers.” Involve all employees to build commitment for action.

Application in Customer Success: Participate in enterprise planning activities, share customer intelligence and help set functional objectives, goals, strategies and tactics. Prioritize, define, implement and track account management and marketing plans along with process improvement projects. Review progress monthly and quarterly.

People System

What it does: Defines jobs, employee knowledge and skill requirements, and facilitates screening, hiring, training, performance feedback, career development and overall organizational change.

Leading practices: Define short-term and long-term staffing and skills requirements as well as succession plans aligned with the strategic plan. Use structured screening, hiring, training, retention, and cultural indoctrination practices. Conduct both formal and informal performance reviews. Interpret quantitative job performance measures in proper statistical context. Collaborate to define and hold employees accountable for development plan execution.

Application in Customer Success: Craft position plans, metrics, knowledge and skill requirements, and development plans for CSMs to build stronger relationships, deliver onboarding, and uncover and advance sales opportunities. Characterize and use personality traits, in addition to education and past experience, to screen new hires. Give regular feedback, formally and informally, and avoid ranking.

Work System

What it does: Describes requirements and designs optimal workflows at a macro and micro level between customers, business partners, suppliers, company departments and work groups.

Leading practices: Map processes to identify critical handoffs, disconnects, metrics, and process improvement opportunities. Periodically redesign processes for enhanced speed, cost effectiveness and increased quality. Protect and develop core competencies to promote strategic advantages. Use partnership management and supply chain management techniques to influence change and improvement with third parties.

Application in Customer Success: Define the customer lifecycle linking onboarding, training, engagement, renewals, upselling and cross-selling activities using phone, e-mail, video, events, webinars, and social media contact as required. Define critical handoffs and feedback loops with sales, customer support, development, and accounting.

Metrics System

What it does: Focuses managers and teams on the critical few cause-and-effect relationships that keep processes under control and promote beneficial end results.

Leading practices: Deploy and manage daily operations across the enterprise via linked, balanced and aligned dashboards. List a critical few leading and lagging indicators in each dashboard to measure key business process performance, especially attributes driving competitive distinction and financial results. Calibrate dashboard signals using customer specifications or statistical process limits. Review periodically, take corrective action, and launch process improvement projects as signals dictate.  Benchmark performance against competitors and “best in class” process references.

Application in Customer Success: Construct dashboards measuring outcomes (renewal rate, new revenue, etc.) and process factors leading to them (conformance to contact schedule, 30-day adoption %, etc.) as appropriate to the defined CSM role. Use a total of ten or fewer metrics, rolling up individual statistics into overall team performance. Set “red,” “yellow,” “green” action limits based on historical performance or goals articulated in the annual plan. Make dashboards visible in work areas, review and discuss performance with team members at least monthly.

Continuous Improvement System

What it does: Manages projects emphasizing customer focus, teamwork, and scientific methods to uncover root causes of problems, driving ongoing improvement in products, services and internal processes.

Leading practices: Execute cross-functional improvement projects using formal methods such as Lean Six Sigma, process simulations, and predictive analytics to maximize results. Choose projects based on financial or strategic impact, including major initiatives linked to annual and strategic plans. Increase effectiveness and customer value and reduce customer dissatisfaction, cycle times, and inefficiencies in all products and processes. In SaaS companies, diminish downstream bug detection, remediation, and customer churn costs through better upstream product definition, software development and validation processes.

Application in Customer Success: Implement formal methods to collect data and analyze processes to determine changes that increase customer retention and revenue and lower the Cost to Serve. Use statistical techniques such as logistic regression to study factors that impact customer churn, such as adoption rate, unresolved trouble tickets, or contact frequency. Design and execute experiments to test new ideas. Participate in company feedback loops to report software bugs and advocate for product and service enhancements.

Leadership System

What it does: Provides strategic direction, prioritizes actions, engages and inspires employees to perform at high levels, learn, and enact changes.

Leading practices: Articulate clearly and broadly communicate company mission, vision, values, goals and strategic plans. Engage the workforce and lead strategic change using formal processes. Model by example, recognize and reward high performance, and develop new leaders throughout the organization. Provide and receive performance feedback.

Application in Customer Success: Define the team’s purpose, goals and values. Understand and align with what motivates individual team members. Recognize and reward performance and hold people accountable. Incorporate leadership effectiveness feedback from superiors and employees in personal development plans.

When Customer Success leaders run their operations using the seven management systems above, their results rival the very best performers. Excellence becomes part of the culture, and customer churn, referrals and revenue relentlessly improve.

Excel-lens is a publication of Service Excellence Partners. We increase customer loyalty and business performance in the cloud computing industry. Contact us today.

Source:
1. J. Collins, M. T. Hansen, 2011. Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos and Luck—Why Some Thrive Despite Them All. 

Why Customer Defections Mean Things are Worse Than You Think

“A bird in the hand beats two in the bush.”

John Ray's A Hand-book of Proverbs, 1670

Most SaaS executives assume customer churn rises the minute a company loses its competitive edge. Not so. If customers are switching to top rivals in appreciable numbers, executives should be especially nervous—the situation is already much graver than they think. Research suggests customers leave because they’re long dissatisfied and now view the competition is twice as good. Executives must heed the warnings and overcome their own biases if they want to turn things around.

Thinking that doesn’t add up

Strangely, people tend to avoid loss even when they are faced with the possibility of larger gains. Research shows that people require more compensation to give up a possession than they would have been willing to pay to obtain it in the first place.¹ Even when all things are equal, repeated experiments show people subjectively weigh gains much differently than losses.

In 1654, French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat proved that the expected value (EV) of an investment depends on the amount (x) and the probability of its outcome (p):

EV = px

For example, say a coin flip determines you collect $100 for heads and $0 for tails. Since the probability of obtaining heads using a fairly balanced coin over a large number of trials is 50%, the likely payout, on average, is $100 * 50% = $50. As shown by the charts, this relationship is true no matter the amount or the probability used in the calculation. Today many financial decisions are made using Pascal and Fermat’s expected value.

But that's not how most people make decisions. Faced with a choice of receiving $3,000 for sure or taking an 80% chance to win $4,000, most people will keep the money, even though the expected value for taking the risk is greater ($4,000 * 80% = $3,200). Prospect Theory in modern economics asserts that rather than apply logic, people instinctively determine value (V) by weighting differences in probabilities (p) and amounts (x) shown below:

V(x,p) = w(p)v(x)

The clean, linear function reflecting objective reality is suddenly replaced with this subjective, nonlinear aberration:²

Intuitively, the irregular curves hold water. People would rather take a 95% chance losing $100 than pay $85 for sure because amounts “feel” equally painful and 95% probability “feels” less than certain. On the other hand, people will take a 5% chance to win $100 instead of choosing $13 cash because $100 seems a lot more than $13, and 5% seems like a realistic chance.

Scientists also discovered that when they tested 50-50 win-loss scenarios, subjects said the following ratios equally attractive to when compared with receiving nothing:³

In other words, faced with even odds, most people want 2:1 upside before taking a risk. A bird in the hand is indeed worth two in the bush!

Why do we think this way? Most scientists believe it’s a vestige of our human evolution. In prehistoric times, survival probably depended upon playing it safe when we had resources and taking risks when we had none. In the modern age, however, our success depends on scientific and social advances, situations requiring thoughtful reflection instead of impulsive action. But since our complex reasoning evolved relatively recently, it often takes a back seat to our more primitive instincts, even when the consequences aren’t life or death. Despite today’s advances, subconscious emotion, not conscious logic, often rules the day. This explains why regardless of the odds, we continue to buy lottery tickets.

Tip of the iceberg

Evidence shows people are far more likely to stay in a bad situation than pursue a better one. What this means for SaaS companies is that once customers subscribe, they are likely to stay. But when customers switch, it’s very serious. Their actions show they’ve already had enough and customers realize competitors offer significantly greater advantages.

As humans themselves, executives likewise have a choice. They can either look logically at their company’s performance gaps and do something about them, or scoff at their customers’ subjectivity and do nothing at all. Like their customers, executives must overcome their own, natural inclination to preserve the status quo even when things are going south. If they can see the advantages of change and take risks to improve organizational performance faster than their customers get fed up and go elsewhere, churn reduction has a fighting chance. Otherwise, perhaps, companies with more evolved thinking will be the survivors.

Excel-lens is a publication of Service Excellence Partners. We increase customer loyalty and business performance in the cloud computing industry. Contact us today.

Sources:

1. Kahneman, D., Knetch, J. L., and Thaler, R. H. (1990). Experimental tests of the endowment effect and the Coese theorem. Journal of Political Economics, 98, 1325-1348.
2. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 4, 263-291
3. Tversky A., and Kahneman, D. (1992). Advances in prospect theory—cumulative representation of uncertainty. Journal of Risk Uncertainty, 5, 297-323

Are CSMs Taking a Critical Process for Granted?

It’s time to view relationship-building from a new perspective 

Studies have shown that people switch vendors for three reasons:¹ 
1. Expectations for quality and value go unmet
2. Customers lack personal attachment to the supplier 
3. It’s easy to switch  

When all three factors are present, churn results. Factor 3 above depends on product complexity, cost to change, and competitive pressures. Customer Success teams address the first factor, building value through software usage, answering questions, and demonstrating the benefits promised during the sales cycle. But the second factor, building personal attachment, rarely gets the attention it deserves, yet it’s a major driver affecting churn.  

Now wait a minute! Everyone agrees that building customer relationships is important. It’s intuitively obvious that better customer relationships lead to greater retention and loyalty. After all, people prefer to do business with people they know, like, and trust. But many companies take relationship-building for granted. They believe it happens on its own—simply hire friendly front-line employees, give customers what they need, and better relationships will somehow result. But if relationships are so important, why leave them to chance? Is there a better way? 

Relationship is a process

Psychologists say relationships have a beginning, middle, and sometimes an end.² Think about how you became friends with someone. You met, discovered you had a common background and shared interests, and you found each other likeable. Something “clicked.” You connected because the person showed empathy and realness, and you immediately felt comfortable with them. After subsequent contacts, your relationship deepened through mutual connection, caring, confiding, and trust. You found you were helping each other achieve goals and deal with daily frustrations. You maintained your relationship through periodic social get-togethers or by enjoying common interests. If you’re fortunate, this person is still in your life. But as you know, friendships can lull when the other person gets busy, goes through life changes, or moves away. Friendships can also abruptly dissolve due to a “falling out.” 

Imagine if all your business relationships could be close friendships. Most will never be, but all relationships follow the same pattern of initiation, maintenance and dissolution. Relationships, like all processes, occur in a sequence of steps, and outcomes obey the laws of cause and effect. The strength and quality of the relationship that develops depends on a number of factors, some of which can be controlled and others cannot. For example, people can't change their basic nature and few will ever become best friends. However, it is possible to become more likeable. Since some relationship factors are controllable, influencing them improves relationships. 

Relationship factors

Subconscious social signals lie at the heart of our relationships. David Rock, founder of the NeuroLeadership Institute, distilled neuroscientific research and social evolutionary theory into a simple model to describe the reflexive behaviors all humans share.³ His SCARF model outlines the core psychological drivers hardwired into our subconscious:

• Status—how we perceive our importance relative to others
• Certainty—our ability to predict the future
• Autonomy—our sense of mastery and control over events
• Relatedness—our connection and sense of safety with others
• Fairness—our perception of equitable exchanges 

These factors influence relationships positively or negatively. For example, consumers who call technical support complain when technicians make them feel stupid. The customer subliminally perceives the interaction as a status threat. In extreme cases, the conversation provokes anger and causes customers to terminate their contracts. “You’re not treating me like a valued customer!” they exclaim. Most of the time provocations are unintentional and subtle, but even minor comments at the wrong time can leave lasting impressions. 

Conversely, SCARF techniques can promote positive encounters that lead to stronger attachments. For example, a Customer Success Manager begins an onboarding call saying, 

“I saw on your LinkedIn profile that you’re from Chicago.” 

“That’s right. I grew up on the South Side, 120th and Pulaski,” the customer says.

“No kidding!” the CSM exclaims. “I’m from Orland Park!”

The CSM is building relatedness right from the start, sending a subliminal signal that she’s a friend, not a foe. After the small talk, she says she will help him get his account set up and it will take only fifteen minutes. This creates a sense of certainty in the customer’s mind. By proactively sending these and other signals, the CSM produces warmer, friendlier interactions.

In a similar manner, CSM leaders should look closely at how interactions occur throughout the customer lifecycle. They can do this by mapping the experience from the customer’s perspective and by identifying the customer’s practical (effective) and emotional (affective) needs at each step. Then, executives can close performance gaps by implementing process improvements and measuring the impact on customer churn. Often simple changes in the right places can make significant improvements through training, website revisions, and e-mail edits. 

SaaS companies tend to take the process of building relationships for granted. Like all processes, however, those better designed and managed produce better results. CSMs should be more mindful, both in what they do and how it impacts the customer’s brain. Proactively and systematically creating the conditions for friendly attachment leads to stronger relationships and reduces churn.  

Excel-lens is a publication of Service Excellence Partners. We increase customer loyalty and business performance in the cloud computing industry. Contact us today.

Sources:

1. Gremlera, D. and Brown, S. (1996) Service Loyalty: Its Nature, Importance, and Implications, University of Idaho and Arizona State University, USA
2. Blieszner, R. and Roberto, K. A. (2003). Friendship across the lifespan: Reciprocity in individual and relational development.  Also in F. R. Lang and K. L. Fingerman (Eds.), Growing together: Personal relationships across the lifespan (pp. 159-182). Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
3. Rock, D. (2012) “SCARF: a brain-based model for collaborating with and influencing others.” Neuroleadership Journal

Cohort Analysis Done Right

Use a p-chart to properly monitor shifts in customer churn

Let's say you run a Customer Success team and your manager asks you to perform cohort analysis in order to better understand customer churn behaviors. Your customers renew on a monthly basis, and you’re interested in measuring their initial fallout rate. Using data collected over the past year, you count the number of users who canceled their subscriptions after the first 30 days and divide that number by the total number of new users during each month.¹  Your Excel spreadsheet table is shown below:

You then plot the data:

The results concern you. Although the data points vary somewhat, it appears your 30-day churn rate has been increasing all year! Using the trend line function in Excel confirms it—the first month’s churn rate has grown from about 2.2% to 3.2%!!

You share this information with your boss and she’s not happy. Clearly your Customer Success team is not doing the job. She expects immediate improvement. Or else. 

Simple, obvious... and wrong

But hold on a minute—you’ve made a serious mistake. You haven’t managed your team poorly. You’ve analyzed your data improperly!

Your error has to do with statistical sampling. Randomness occurs in all data, and experimenters must be careful to separate the “signal” from the “noise.” Statisticians warn of two types of experimental error: 

• Type 1: False Positive—a result is determined when in fact there’s only randomness 
• Type 2: False Negative—randomness is determined when in fact there’s a valid result

Without using the proper statistical methods, people can easily jump to the wrong conclusions. Overly simplified, standard tools in Excel make the situation worse. As a result, managers tend to over-react, seeing a problem that isn’t there and making changes that can do more harm than good.² Managers can also under-react, missing the cues to make changes when it’s time to do so. Most businesspeople lack a strong analytical background, so statistical errors are quite common, often leading to disastrous consequences.   

Using the p-chart

Fortunately, manufacturers have been using powerful statistical methods for years, and these practices can easily be applied in software companies. Lean Six Sigma, a quality improvement method, incorporates a broad range of tools that ensure teams properly analyze data and reach valid conclusions. You can use these techniques to your advantage. 

The control chart is a handy Lean Six Sigma tool helping managers avoid Type 1 and Type 2 errors. Control charts are used to determine if a process is in a state of statistical control, i.e., if the observed variation is due to randomness and not any particular cause. There are many different types of control charts depending on the type of data involved, but all follow the same basic structure. The p-chart (or proportion chart) uses the binomial distribution. It is the most appropriate control chart to use in this example because there are only two possibilities (the customer cancels or renews) and results are expressed as percentages.³  

The control charting procedure is as follows:

1. Determine rational subgroups. A rational subgroup is a homogeneous set of data that provides a representative sample, such as a batch of parts manufactured during a shift. Many SaaS companies define their subgroups as monthly “cohorts,” the set of new customers who sign up for software during a given month. Usually there’s nothing different about a customer who subscribes in January versus one who subscribes in February, and for the purposes of evaluating churn, it’s more accurate to use sequential, fixed sample sizes instead of varying sample sizes.⁴  In order to calculate the mean with reasonable accuracy, statisticians recommend using around 25 subgroups. In this case, we’ll choose fixed sample sizes with 168 customers in each of 24 subgroups (4032 customers/24 subgroups = 168 sample customers/subgroup).⁵  Below is your new sample set:

2. Plot the dots. As you can see, the shape looks a little different, but it still appears there’s some trending in the data. 

3. Calculate and apply the center line and control limits. 

• Compute p-bar (or average proportion) for the data set. In this example, 114 out of 4,032 customers churned after the first 30 days, a p-bar of 2.8% (114/4032). Draw this line on the chart. 
• Calculate the upper process control limit, UCL. This line shows the mean plus three standard deviations. The line is important because the probability of finding a data point more than three standard deviations away from the mean by chance is less than 1%. The UCL calculation for a p-chart is:

UCL = p-bar + 3 * Square Root {p-bar * (1 – p-bar) / n}

where n is the fixed subgroup sample size

In this example, UCL = 0.028 + 3*SQRT {0.028*(1-0.028)/168} = 0.0662 = 6.6%. Add this line to the chart.⁶  

4. Interpret the results. As you can see, most data points fall in the vicinity of p-bar and none exceed the upper process control limit, UCL. This is your first indication that observed variation is likely due to randomness and not any special causes or shifts in your process. For good measure, add lines at +/-1 and +/-2 standard deviations (probabilities of data points in these ranges 68% and 95% respectively) and add them to the chart. Mark zones “C” between the centerline and 1 standard deviation, “B” between 1 and 2 standard deviations, and “A” between 2 and 3 standard deviations from the mean as shown below.

Then apply three additional statistical tests to rule out any possibility that something is amiss:⁷ 

• Nine points in a row in Zone C or beyond on one side of the center line?—NO 
• Six points in a row steadily increasing or steadily decreasing?—NO 
• Fourteen points in a row alternating up and down?—NO 

Congratulations, you can breathe a sigh of relief! You’ve correctly established that despite appearances, there’s no trending in the data, contradicting what you originally thought. You explain to your boss that nothing has changed and results are due exclusively to randomness. The data shows that your onboarding process is in a state of statistical control and will routinely produce 30-day churn averaging about 2.8%. What’s more, you can accurately predict that 2/3 of the time future churn will be measured between 1.5% and 4%, 1/3 of the time less than 1.5% or over 5%, and only on rare occasions will it ever exceed 6.6%.  

Next steps 

You can continue to add new data points and monitor process stability using the limits you calculated above and by applying the same interpretation procedure. If any of the four statistical test results are positive, take immediate action and determine the underlying cause. You can use p-control charts to investigate customer defections at other periods of time, such as subscriptions after 60 days, 90 days, or upon annual renewal. Several Lean Six Sigma statistical packages are commercially available online (many of which are SaaS), making control charting much easier. 

Once your Customer Success process is stable, it’s possible to systematically improve it. Although keeping things under control is always your first priority, making things better is your end goal. In my next blog, I’ll describe how Lean Six Sigma methods can be used to help you improve customer retention.

Excel-lens is a publication of Service Excellence Partners. We increase customer loyalty and business performance in the cloud computing industry. Contact us today.

Notes:

1. Technically, calculating ratios when denominators vary causes an “average of the average” problem in which comparing percentages between periods introduces significant measurement error. This discussion was deleted for brevity. 
2. Human over-reaction to Type 1 errors is a fascinating subject, one with neurobiological and evolutionary explanations. It’s beyond the scope of this blog, but humans are preconditioned to see patterns and jump to the wrong conclusions, hence the need for robust application of the Scientific Method. 
3. Note that p-control charts can be used with varying sample sizes under certain circumstances (computing average n or using multiple control limits), and that other types of attribute control charts can be used for smaller sample sizes. For simplicity, this discussion was omitted.
4. Homogeneity extends to type of customer, including the market segment and associated value proposition, as described in my previous guest blog. If churn behaviors vary significantly by customer type, you should stratify your data and chart each segment separately.   
5. A rule of thumb is to choose subgroup sample sizes for attribute data such that np>5; in this case, churn is about 3%; n>5/0.03 or n>167
6. Note that in this case, the lower process control limit is negative and can be neglected; this is a “single sided” investigation where the minimum churn is 0.0% and we are interested in detecting a shift upward.
7. Montgomery, D. C. (2005), Introduction to Statistical Quality Control (5 ed.), Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, ISBN 978-0-471-65631-9, OCLC 56729567

Customer Loyalty Problem Solving

A three-level model helps focus improvement efforts. 

Customer retention is critical for companies with business models that rely on recurring revenue. The “leaky bucket” that is customer defection robs 

companies of precious revenue and profit. In cloud computing, cutting customer churn in half over the typical customer life cycle doubles company cash flow and gross margin.¹ Even a small churn reduction pays off in the long term when millions of dollars in revenue are in play.

Obviously, improving customer loyalty is the key, but how? Where should managers start? I propose a simple, three-level model to concentrate on the customer benefits that lead to loyalty: Implicit, Explicit, and Experiential.

Implicit Benefits

Customers take certain things for granted, such as reliable wireless phone service, accurate bank statements, and bug-free software. People assume basic attributes come with the service, and when companies fail to deliver on these minimum expectations, customers have little patience. Chronic problems providing what quality expert Dr. Noriaki Kano calls “must-be” quality² leads to customer defections in every industry. In Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies, churn can lead to the loss of half of a firm’s customer base during each renewal cycle.

This is why managers must make delivering the fundamentals a company’s first priority. In cloud computing, that means system uptime, secure data, error-free code, and basic product support. SaaS executives must get and maintain control of their technology development and operations processes or prepare for a rapid demise.

Explicit Benefits

Companies promise things during the sales cycle. When deciding between competitive options, customers evaluate each company’s “value proposition” and choose the best option. If promises don’t materialize, customer expectations go unmet. For example, a SaaS company may state that their software creates a certain type of report, but the customer later discovers it can’t. Customers may not return if the issue is severe and the dissatisfaction high enough. If a competitor offers comparable benefits, and changing providers is simple and cheap, potential for churn grows.

Marketing masters Michael Lanning and Lynn Phillips say companies should make strong value propositions their strategic foundation.³  First, managers must choose a winning value proposition, one that focuses sharply on a target market and offers a compelling alternative. Second, executives must deliver the chosen value proposition by translating it into design requirements, bringing it to market, and then providing it in day-to-day operations. Finally, the company must communicate the value proposition clearly and consistently in marketing, sales, and customer service. When promise-making and promise-keeping are in close alignment, customer expectations are reliably met and churn is reduced. An effective strategic management system ensures value propositions aren’t empty promises.

Cloud computing companies competitive in delivering Explicit and Implicit benefits will typically retain 80-85% of their customers from one renewal cycle to the next. But to raise performance to world-class levels of 95% or higher, companies must become proficient delivering a third type of benefit.

Experiential Benefits

Customers prefer to do business with people they know, like, and trust. How a company does business is as important to customers as the product or service they receive from them. When customers have lackluster experiences, churn increases. Just one unhelpful tech support interaction can end a business relationship, especially when the customer feels ignored, devalued, or unfairly treated. On the other hand, service companies that form strong relationship bonds enjoy significantly higher customer loyalty.⁴

Customer Experience Management (or Customer Journey Management) is a technique used to analyze and improve customer interactions. Managers collect data on myriad customer “touch points” (website visits, phone calls, e-mails, blog entries, social media, etc.) and plot each interaction against time. Patterns emerge where gaps and problems exist, and managers can use process improvement techniques, such as Lean Six Sigma, to resolve them.

While addressing functional gaps is the first place to start, research suggests a more mindful approach is the secret to achieving the highest levels of customer loyalty. Underlying all human

relationships are reflexive responses to subtle, social cues that can have a profound effect on conscious feelings and decisions.⁵ For example, our subconscious mind is sensitive to certainty, the ability to predict the future. When a Customer Success Manager begins an onboarding call by saying, “We’ll have you up and rolling in just fifteen minutes,” she provides subliminal assurances to the customer, producing a rewarding dopamine burst in his brain. If additional, beneficial cues accumulate during the call, the brain assigns a positive marker to the memory.⁶  Later, the brain reactivates the marker as it recalls the experience, allowing subliminal emotions to “weigh in” on the evaluation. When companies understand and proactively manage simple social cues through employee training, refined user experience (UX) design and other means, the resulting positive interactions lead to richly satisfying relationships and more loyal customers.

Loyalty troubleshooting is easier when managers focus on Implicit, Explicit, and Experiential benefits. When customer turnover is high, executives should attend to the basics. When it’s moderate, the priority becomes clearly articulating and consistently delivering competitive distinction. And when managers strive for world-class loyalty, being mindful of the customer experience is the path to success.

Excel-lens is a publication of Service Excellence Partners. We increase customer loyalty and business performance in the cloud computing industry. Contact us today.

Sources:

1. Skok, David (2013). “SaaS Metrics 2.0 – A Guide to Measuring and Improving What Matters,” For Entrepreneurs blog
2. Adapted from Noriaki Kano, Nobuhiku Seraku, Fumio Takahashi, Shinichi Tsuji (April 1984). "Attractive Quality and Must-Be Quality" (in Japanese). Journal of the Japanese Society for Quality Control 14 (2): 39–48. ISSN 0386-8230. 
3. Lanning, M. and Phillips, L. “Building Market-Focused Organizations,” (Gemini Consulting White Paper, 1992).
4. Gremlera, D. and Brown, S. (1996) “Service Loyalty: Its Nature, Importance, and Implications,” University of Idaho and Arizona State University, USA
5. Rock, D. “SCARF: a brain-based model for collaborating with and influencing others,” NeuroLeadership Journal.
6. Damasio, A. R. (1996) “The somatic marker hypothesis and the possible functions of the prefrontal cortex,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 351, 1413-1420. 

Will Kindle Fire's Mayday Spark a Service Revolution?

Amazon warms up the customer experience

One of the hottest Christmas gifts this season is Kindle Fire HDX. It’s a souped-up tablet that includes a new feature garnering a lot of attention. It’s the Mayday button, and it connects you to a live customer service agent over a video link. Press the button, and within fifteen seconds an agent appears on your screen offering help. You can see and hear them, but they can only hear you. The agent has full access to your device, so they can view screens, take control, demonstrate capabilities, or troubleshoot problems. Mayday is available 24/7, 365 days a year, free of charge, and with no time limits on how long you and the adviser chat. Amazon CEO +Jeff Bezos says the company goal with Mayday "is to revolutionize tech support."¹

It’s a smart move, and only part of Kindle’s simple three-part strategy.²  Amazon’s first strategy is to sell premium products at non-premium prices, and the second is making money when people spend on Amazon books and videos. In other words, give away the razor but make it up on the razor blades. The third strategy is fostering customer delight with Mayday. It becomes an important differentiator, especially with Kindle’s target buyers—older, less tech-savvy, avid readers. Amazon handles the burden of helping tech-challenged users, so the new Kindle just may be Santa’s perfect gift for an elderly mom or dad.

The devil is in the details

But along with innovation comes ironing out operational wrinkles. Generally reviews are very positive, but some customers report technical glitches, while others are suspicious about agents having full access to everything, including passwords (Amazon notes screen sharing can be paused).³ Sharing privacy concerns, many corporate IT departments have disabled Mayday links on company Wi-Fi’s to prevent Amazon agents from seeing potentially sensitive documents.⁴

A variety of other issues have yet to reveal their consequences and only time will tell. Christmas Day customer service demand will likely be off the charts as new customers unwrap and try their new toys, which means Amazon may be hard-pressed to meet their promised 15-second service level response time. It’s also not clear how Amazon will deal with multiple languages or serving the hearing impaired. Then there’s the issue of creepy customers, although Amazon says agents are trained to terminate sessions that go off track. Will being telegenic become a job requirement for technical support?⁵ Not all agents have the stunningly good looks of the actors portrayed in Amazon’s TV spot, and unlike call centers, agents’ facial expressions and body language are suddenly under scrutiny on every interaction. How does all this play with labor laws and employee feedback?

Despite the challenges, putting a live, smiling face on customer care is revolutionary. Seeing faces, even those of total strangers, affects us in subtle but profound ways. Neuroscientists have known for years that our first skill as babies is to recognize faces, but they’ve recently discovered that our brains are wired far more extensively for social connection than they previously thought. Experiments show our brains activate reward centers when we see photographs of people who want to chat with us online. Surprisingly, the effect holds true even if the people are total strangers and we’re not that interested in talking to them.⁶ Experts believe our hunger for human connection is a primary driver in how we think, feel, and act, and simply viewing faces satisfies some of those needs. Tapping this deep psychology and delivering a helpful service experience creates a uniquely positive memory with the device and the brand. Amazon’s step toward replacing impersonal call centers with Mayday’s new paradigm could indeed raise the bar on a key factor that drives customer loyalty.

Mayday catches fire

While some techies scoff, saying it is nothing more than a sales gimmick, others think Mayday opens up new frontiers in customer service. They see it as a new era of data integration that will enhance the customer experience.⁷ Software help desk tool vendors are already buzzing about imitating Mayday-like capabilities in future releases.⁸ And industry watchers are thinking about Mayday as a method to collect customer feedback, encourage usage, offer advice, and upsell.⁵

Assuming Amazon can work out the details, making customer care more personal with video can have profound effects on customer loyalty by connecting with our basic human nature. Whatever the outcome, the new Kindle Fire HDX has set the service world ablaze imagining the possibilities.  

Excel-lens is a publication of Service Excellence Partners. Our unique approach helps founders at early stage companies better scale operations and manage growth. Contact us today.

Sources:
1. Dan Seifert on September 25, 2013, “Amazon launches Mayday, a virtual Genius Bar for the Kindle Fire HDX: Amazon is including live tech support with its new tablet, no pants required” The Verge. 
2. Todd Bishop on September 25, 2013. “Jeff Bezos explains the next step in Amazon’s strategy — the ‘hardest and coolest’ part” Geekwire. 
3. Timothy Stenovec on October 2, 2013. “The Mayday Button May Actually Convince You To Buy The Kindle Fire HDX” Huffington Post. 
4. Matt Hamblen on September 26, 2013. “New Kindle Fire HDX's tech support button could push IT to yell 'Mayday!'” Computerworld. 
5. Software Advice, December 11, 2013, “Is Amazon’s Mayday Support Model Right for Your Organization?” CSI: Customer Service Investigator. 
6. Matthew D. Lieberman (2013). Social: Why our Brains are Wired to Connect, Crown Publishers, New York. ISBN: 978-0-307-88909-6
7. Neal Schact on September 29, 2013. “Did Amazon Just Fire Another Shot Heard 'round the World?” Nojitter. 
8. Joe Panettieri on November 26, 2013. “Amazon Kindle MayDay Button: Can MSP Help Desks Respond?” MSPMentor